I’m pretty sure this one is directly related to the first issue, life expectancy. And the assumption that there is no way you will live to see the market recover from a downturn or a crash. This is more of the assumption that the present moment is all there is. Things won’t change from “this”, whatever “this” is.

So, here are some numbers in a nice chart:

This is a tricky issue because the change isn’t very big in any given year. The long term average for inflation is 3.25%. That’s averaged out from 1913 to April of this year. If we refer back to the previous discussion of life expectancy, it starts to make sense. Over a single year, the cost of the car only goes up 3.25% or $812, but over 30 years the price goes from $25,000 to $65,259.

So the solution to this problem is:

The first way to run out of money is to Ignore your Life Expectancy.

A common issue is a tendency to under estimate their life expectancy. A woman aged 65 has a 50% chance of living another 26 years. The male expectation is another 24 years.